It already is and has been for a while for most of us. Stocks might not be down but that’s largely because of inflated earnings. The rich have gotten richer though
How do you feel like it’s a recession? And why do you think most people feel that way?
Obviously, recessions don’t happen based on anecdotal information, but that doesn’t mean it can’t feel that way to some individuals.
Necessities are much harder to afford than a few years ago
Sure, but that’s not what recession means.
Another proof that economists are not disinterested and instead work for the banks.
I don’t care about GDP. Look at what affects actual Americans and not billionaires
I get what you’re talking about, but you can’t just make up your own definitions based on anecdotal evidence.
House prices going up double digits nationwide since 2020 is not anecdotal. Same with vehicle prices. Call it whatever you want but the average person is worse off since 2020. That’s great that billionaire’s assets have increased and still are but that’s not trickling down to me or you.
Did you not read my comment?
It already is and has been for a while for most of us
I agree that those things are hard if you’re not already a homeowner or you need to buy a new car, but those things don’t constitute a recession.
Unemployment is at the lowest rate for 30 years and wages are rising… that’s actually part of what’s driving inflation. Annualized growth this year is expected to hit an astonishing 6%. In July new orders for manufacturing hit their highest level in 9 months. Construction is doing well and consumer spending is way up. Nothing points even remotely to a recession.
It’s not about unemployment it’s about affordability
Wages are up more than the inflation is
Houses are up much more than wage increases over the past couple years. Again, it’s about affordability for the average person
That’s cherry-picking because I could just as easily say “fuel costs are down, so it’s good for the average person”
You don’t just spend all of your income on housing. To be more accurate, you would need to track the average expenses and if they go up or down. Which is called… the CPI
How is the workforce participation rate doing? You know, the only number that matters.
That’s not the complication. What has made the NBER unwilling to label this a recession up to now was the job numbers. You can’t be in a recession if everyone can easily get a job. Now that the job numbers are declining and layoffs are going on they will likely declare it a recession.
Not while the economy has been expanding for the last 4 quarters and shows no signs of contraction in this quarter or next they won’t.
Using the stock market to measure a recession has to account for continually rising rates at which money is rented. If you can see pretty massive cases of consumer level inflation while businesses struggle, you already have a hole money is leaving.
Watching the evergrande saga unwind over the course of years should give an idea to the extent of run time it will take to see results, especially when it is in the interest of investors to prop up value.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/wage-growth
Wages up more than 5% annually
Inflation 3.2% annually, 4.8% when not counting food and energy
Sorry, the economy is good for the worker and not in any recession
And how much has housing costs increased over a 3 year period vs. wages? Let’s do vehicle costs while we’re at it too. These are the two main expenses for most households
That’s part of CPI. Housing is like one third of it. The only time wages were higher vs. the inflation was during the pandemic, and that’s not a fair comparison since a lot of people lost their jobs so the average wage was affected
The average person now is much better off than in 2019 and it’s not even close
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They’re wealthy enough to be able to absorb the increased cost without noticing while going “ACK-shually” to anyone who isn’t wealthy enough to aborsb the cost increase without noticing. Arm chair economists are fucking cancer.
You are both arguing from an anecdotal pov and he has data to back up his argument.
Someone is winning and it ain’t you.
Oh yeah, I’m sure clown is technically correct about the term and definition of recession. The people losing are definitely the people who are being priced out of groceries and homes. Acting like everything is fine and the economy is great is pretty fucking tone deaf.
His data is zoomed in to YTD and not the past 3 years when the bulk of the inflation happened. You really can’t see that? Zoom out a bit and his data will show a whole different picture. He cherry picked.
In terms of stocks and GDP, I am not delusional that that is trickling down to me or you. That’s great that billionaires are getting richer but how does that help the average american?
Not an argument
Only poor people are feeling it and the cash value of what they own is too small to make a difference in the larger picture.
Funny how recessions only exist under capitalism.
They exist in non-capitalist systems as well so long as the economy has growth metrics being tracked. They can be rarer but as economic data from some countries is less reliable due to fraud, incompetence or just sheer difficulty in obtaining said data (eg try getting accurate numbers in a extremely poor country with little infrastructure) so it can be hard to tell.
They exist outside of capitalism. Im not sure why you would think other systems have perpetual upwards growth.
Name one. Excluding mixed economies and state run capitalist countries.
Then no country meets your criteria. Such a clever way of moving the goal post.
The UK in 1706. It predates capitalism and the economy tanked by ~15% as the result if war with France.
Yes they moved the goalposts and they still managed to be wrong.
Yes they moved the goalposts and they still managed to be wrong
Well, fancy that.
Anywho… for a second there I thought your instance was @redhat.com
Still not wrong. And this isn’t Linux
No 100% wrong and so wrong your source backs it up.
How does something predate capitalism? I feel like capitalism happened as soon as one ape had something another didn’t.
Capitalism, like many philosophies, is a response to a previous system eg Marx was responding to Smith’s works, Mussolini was responding to Marxists etc. Capitalism’s notion that the ideal involvement of the state in private enterprise should be limited was not a commonly held view until the later 1700s.
Mercantilism was the popular system of the time and it featured a lot of direct involvement from the crown.
Since late stage capitalism is imperialism 3.0, I wonder if it still counts. 🤔
That’s just a more complicated way of you stating you do not understand what imperialism is as that is absolutely not just a capitalist thing eg The USSR.
I meant currently, today, not historically.
predates capitalism
Talk about moving goalposts. Mixed economies include capitalist markets.
That wasn’t a “recession,” they called it an Economic Slump. Source:.
Your source describes it as a depression which is an extended recession. No system always grows.
Don’t move the goalposts. My comment said “recessions.”
Found one Jangmadang. Maybe. The recently started allowing markets. The goalposts are stationary, it’s the earth that moves. Lol
If we exclude mixed economies and state capitalist countries we are left with basically looking at historic record so let’s do that.
There were recessions in 15the century England, not a capitalist economy at all! There was also a recession in Rome in 33 AD as well if you want to look back further. This is just from 5 minutes of googling.
It is not possible to have an economy that never contracts, just to have one where it happens nowhere near as frequently as our current systems and with far better outcomes for most people.
That wasn’t a “recession.” They called it the Great Slump. (source).
“The Great Slump was an economic depression” the first paragraph on that Wikipedia page once you fix your link.
My comment concerns recessions. Which was coined in 1929. It is semantic. But I’m defending the truth of my comment.
Whatever helps you sleep at night I suppose
Thanks, I was making an offhand indictment of capitalism controlling most all market economies in the world.
Name one. Excluding mixed economies and state run capitalist countries.
History absolutely has examples of recessions occurring in non-capitalist countries. Here are a few instances:
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Soviet Union (1980s): The Soviet economy experienced a period of stagnation and recession during the 1980s. A combination of factors including inefficiencies in central planning, declining oil prices, and a lack of technological innovation led to economic troubles. This culminated in the eventual collapse of the Soviet Union.
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Cuba (1990s): After the collapse of the Soviet Union and the loss of its economic support, Cuba entered a period known as the “Special Period in Time of Peace.” This was characterized by a severe economic downturn, shortages of basic goods, and a drop in GDP. Cuba’s economy is based on socialist principles.
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North Korea (1990s): Following the collapse of the Soviet Union and a reduction in aid from communist allies, North Korea faced a period of economic decline in the 1990s. This was marked by food shortages, famine, and a decline in industrial production.
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Venezuela (21st century): While Venezuela has been characterized by a mixed economy with elements of socialism, it’s worth mentioning due to its economic troubles. The country experienced a deep recession starting in the mid-2010s, driven by falling oil prices, mismanagement, and political instability.
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Cambodia (late 1970s): After the Khmer Rouge regime took control, Cambodia’s economy suffered a massive collapse due to forced collectivization, execution of professionals, and isolationist policies. The country went through a period of severe economic depression.
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Maoist China (“Great Leap Forward”, late 1950’s): While China under Mao Zedong’s leadership implemented communist policies, it’s important to note that there were periods of economic turmoil. The Great Leap Forward (1958-1962) aimed to rapidly transform China’s economy through collectivization and communal farming, but it resulted in widespread famine and economic setbacks.
Thank you for proving me wrong 😑 Although I might quibble over the Soviet Union as State Capitalism, the others are legit examples. Take note people. This is how it’s done.
I found a comparison of Cuba, North Korea and China’s economies.
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Moving the goalposts? Still possible the UK in 1706 was in a massive recession as a result if the war with France. Neither country would be capitalist at the time and were mercantilist.
You can just admit that you have no idea what a recession is and made an inaccurate comment because of that ignorance.
I would if it were true. Recessions occur with economic markets. All economies in the world today use some form of capitalism. Either state run or mixed. Therefore, I still stand by my statement. If you can find a current example of a recession occurring in a non capitalist country, I will humbly apologize. I don’t have to be correct. But I’m not going to bow while you denigrate a correct statement.
Edit: After discussing this with my son, he said I’m wrong. So I’m sorry and apologize. I didn’t specify the present in my comment. That’s what I meant. But I understand that historically there have been other economies with recessions.
Edit 2: It seems my apology was premature. After further reading, I found the term was coined in 1929. Which places it firmly under, you guessed it- capitalism.
The sense of “temporary decline in economic activity” was a fall-of-1929 coinage, probably a noun of action from recess.
Before then, economic declines were called financial disaster or slumps.
Disaster and slumps are other terms for extended negative growth.
Funny how recessions only exist under capitalism.
Did I say “disaster,” “slumps” or “extended negative growth?”
Don’t play semantics. Take the L.
Let me introduce you to Venezuela.
Still capitalist.
Gross domestic product is expected to grow 8.3% this year, from 1.9% in 2021, according to a Bloomberg survey of five economists. The country is getting a lift from a rise in oil production and seeing tax revenue and banking credit expand, which suggests domestic demand is rising.
Time to get a new talking point.
I know people from Venezuela.
Their economy was in a castastrophic nosedive for decades, the misery was beyond words.
Yeah, I’ve read it was really horrific. It’s still bad there, but it seems to be getting better.
Ok boomer.
Nice 👍
