• AllNewTypeFace@leminal.space
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    4 months ago

    It’s reassuring if true, but Newsweek are a right-wing disinformation source. Perhaps they’re reporting this straight, or perhaps this is disinformation aimed at a specific goal. In any case, nothing from them should be taken at face value unless verified from a reputable source.

    • Empricorn@feddit.nl
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      4 months ago

      Huh, I had assumed Newsweek was mostly left, but it looks like you’re correct:

      Bias Rating: RIGHT-CENTER
      Factual Reporting: MOSTLY FACTUAL
      Country: USA
      MBFC’s Country Freedom Rating: MOSTLY FREE
      Media Type: Magazine
      Traffic/Popularity: High Traffic
      MBFC Credibility Rating: HIGH CREDIBILITY

      I haven’t read it in over a decade though…

      https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/newsweek/

      • Andonyx@lemmy.world
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        4 months ago

        FWIW, I had a subscription over a decade ago. I can’t say I ever thought of it as “Left”, it was at best, corporate center. But it definitely has gone more right as it has also gone more sensationalist. They partnered with Daily Beast for a while, and then were sold to IBT media, an international “news and Information” conglomerate. I think your memories are from the old hard journalism days, and they have gone back to corporate, but corporate-right.

        • Chocrates@lemmy.world
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          4 months ago

          Isn’t all corporate, right or center? This is maybe a me problem but I think of the Democrats as a center right party because of their policies regarding corporations.

    • danc4498@lemmy.world
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      4 months ago

      I’m guessing it’s too early for polls to actually tell. It comes around the same time as the RNC, so even if his numbers go up, it may be hard to tell what is responsible

  • pjwestin@lemmy.world
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    4 months ago

    We need to worry about motivation, not polls. Very few people will change their minds about the candidates, but many of them will change their minds about voting. Some percentage of likely voters will always stay home. That percentage is going to be much lower for people whose candidate survived an assassination attempt.

  • jprice@kbin.run
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    4 months ago

    Because literally, more than half the country wishes he didn’t miss.

  • solsangraal@lemmy.zip
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    4 months ago

    lol the people shielding him with their bodies, choosing to die for him, would be among the first to get fired if he were to win. along with every other single secret service in charge of the event that day

  • Melatonin@lemmy.dbzer0.com
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    4 months ago

    I believe, in this election, with two unfavorable candidates, everything is already baked in. There’s very little to move the needle at this point.

    Biden screws the pooch during a debate? Polls still show him leading by a point or two, but within the margin of error. Trump gets nearly assassinated? Same, Biden leading by a not statistically significant number.

    This election is going to be a squeaker, and we’re going to see unrest either way. We need a blowout to avoid that, and it’s not happening.

    Edit: last poll I read had Biden leading. Either way doesn’t change what I said.

    • MagicShel@programming.dev
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      4 months ago

      Is Biden shown leading? I only see doom and gloom posted here. Agreed on the need for a blowout, though. We need to show the world we categorically denounce the far right, and that looks unlikely even if Biden wins.

      • lemming934@lemmy.sdf.org
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        4 months ago

        Biden is absolutely not leading. State polling has him behind in every swing state. Nate Silver’s model gives Biden a 30% chance of winning, slightly down from the debate.

    • Asafum@feddit.nl
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      4 months ago

      Unfortunately I see a 0% chance of Biden winning…

      Democrats need polls to be overwhelmingly in their favor for us to just squeeze by. Being as low as we are should be taken as “we’re like 6x worse than what polls currently show.”

  • samus12345@lemmy.world
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    4 months ago

    Polls don’t mean shit until right before an election…and even then they’re suspect.

    • Veneroso@lemmy.world
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      4 months ago

      They’re still talking about his rigged 2020 was rigged.

      Trump wanted investigations into 2016, and he won!

      100% 2024… RIGGED!

      • samus12345@lemmy.world
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        4 months ago

        Yes, they’ll say it was rigged no matter what. What matters is who actually ends up in office on Jan. 20th.

      • Jesus@lemmy.world
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        4 months ago

        Their model showed that it was a VERY close race and Trump had a 1 in 4 chance of winning.

        That doesn’t mean “Clinton is guaranteed to win.” It means, it’s a 4 sided die roll, and Trump had a side.

        • InternetUser2012@lemmy.today
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          4 months ago

          She had a bigger lead than mr 34 felonies has right now. I don’t really care what polls say because they’re a load of shit. VOTE. If everyone votes, we won’t have any republikkklowns in office.

        • samus12345@lemmy.world
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          4 months ago

          Yup, it was within the probability. What it shows is that a lot of people who voted for Trump didn’t say they were when polled.

          • Jesus@lemmy.world
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            4 months ago

            IMHO, it mostly shows that most people don’t actually understand statistics and polling.

            If you have two candidates that are neck and neck, and are split by a percent that is close to the margin of error, then things can go either way depending on who is able to turnout votes on Election Day.

    • lemming934@lemmy.sdf.org
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      4 months ago

      Polls have been remarkably accurate in the last few election cycles.

      The “polls are wrong” talking point is a convenient way for politicians to ignore the will of the people. Trump has done this for a long time, and recently Biden has taken up this practice to pretend that the “Real Americans” think he is fit to be president for another 4 years.

      So please don’t repeat this talking point, or at least read a bit into historical accuracy of polls before you declare them bullshit.

      • Bosht@lemmy.world
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        4 months ago

        Guess I’m being overly optimistic thinking that Trump would be supported at all, let alone have a lead. Regardless of how shit a candidate Biden is, Trump is a fucking disgrace and a criminal among a whole other list of garbage. Appreciate you taking the time to call out my random comment on Lemmy.

      • Reptorian@lemmy.zip
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        4 months ago

        Polls being wrong claim is more about how election results seem to be different than poll results. Special elections points to that.

        • lemming934@lemmy.sdf.org
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          4 months ago

          Polls have a margin of error and election results have generally been within the 80% confidence interval 80% of the time.

          It is true that when there are less polls (like in special elections) it’s harder to get an understanding of the state of the race.

  • Asafum@feddit.nl
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    4 months ago

    Here we go again with the “too soon to have collected enough data” bullshit…

    Just like immediately after the debate “nO cHaNgEs To PolLs” and then days later he started dropping… Because you know… Time and all that…

  • Blackout@kbin.run
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    4 months ago

    He did get a rousing endorsement from the Nashville Nazis tho which is all he ever wanted.

  • NotAnotherLemmyUser@lemmy.world
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    4 months ago

    As much as I want this to be true, this is straight up misinformation at this moment.

    The poll they are referencing is this one: https://pro.morningconsult.com/trackers/2024-presidential-election-polling (Archive link)

    Under “In this tracker”

    KEY TAKEAWAYS

    Trump maintains lead: Trump continues to lead Biden by 2 percentage points, 44% to 42%, unchanged from the previous week and superior to his standing in the lead-up to the first 2024 presidential debate, when the candidates were tied. The latest data was collected Friday through Sunday, meaning most responses were gathered before Saturday’s assassination attempt on Trump at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania.

    I don’t see any polls listed out here either that have been able to do a complete poll since the assassination attempt:

    https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden

    • OccamsTeapot@lemmy.world
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      4 months ago

      It’s also strange that the number of participants doesn’t match up. Newsweek says 2,045 but your link says 2,203. Of course we would know what the issue is if they left a link to the poll rather than a vague description.

      It seems like you’re right though and this is bullshit.

  • Melatonin@lemmy.dbzer0.com
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    4 months ago

    A Bible minute, for your Christian friends who might be voting for Trump.

    Revelation 13 "The dragon stood on the shore of the sea. And I saw a beast coming out of the sea. It had ten horns and seven heads, with ten crowns on its horns, and on each head a blasphemous name. The beast I saw resembled a leopard, but had feet like those of a bear and a mouth like that of a lion. The dragon gave the beast his power and his throne and great authority.

    One of the heads of the beast seemed to have had a fatal wound, but the fatal wound had been healed. The whole world was filled with wonder and followed the beast. People worshiped the dragon because he had given authority to the beast, and they also worshiped the beast and asked, “Who is like the beast? Who can wage war against it?”

    The beast was given a mouth to utter proud words and blasphemies and to exercise its authority for forty-two months [or three and a half years…my note]."

    (I am not saying this is some prophecy fulfilling event. I’m just saying if your friends are voting for Trump and they’re Christians, perhaps this scripture might cause them to think twice before voting for the Antichrist. Just might want to mention it to them.)