It’s not about winning Iowa so much as it is a reflection of national climate. Though Selzer is historically far more accurate than Emerson.

Here’s a comment about why Selzer is a standout in the context of Trump’s previous elections.

Here’s my comment on the same thread which includes [Nate Silver’s writeup] (https://www.natesilver.net/p/theres-more-herding-in-swing-state) on why other pollsters are less reliable right now due to herding. Emerson is the second worst herder on his list.

Now I agree, it seems rather unlikely she wins Iowa. Selzer’s numbers leave room for a narrow Harris loss. I just wanted to provide context on why this poll is vastly more significant than Emerson’s. If she hasn’t made a massive mistake, the national climate is much more Harris friendly than it feels. I won’t let myself be optimistic over this, but it makes it a lot harder to be pessimistic.

From Nate Silver’s write up on this poll:

Yesterday, I complained about how so many pollsters are “herding” by publishing results that are almost an exact tie in a way that is incredibly statistically improbable given the unavoidable sampling error from surveying a small number of voters. I also noted a handful of prominent exceptions — rouge pollsters like the New York Times/Siena College that practically exist in an entirely different universe and imply a much bigger political realignment.

Another such maverick is Ann Selzer of Selzer & Co. (Selzer and NYT/Siena are our two highest-rated pollsters.) As my former colleague Clare Malone wrote in 2016, Selzer — like NYT/Siena — has a long history of bucking the conventional wisdom and being right. In a world where most pollsters have a lot of egg on their faces, she has near-oracular status.

Emphasis mine. While polls were decently off in 2016 and 2020, Selzer’s were not, and reflected a significant underestimate of Trump by nearly every other pollster. This poll suggests Harris is being underestimated. If Selzer is correct, Harris wins very comfortably.

It’s hard to explain how unexpected this result is. Harris proponents like myself were hoping for Trump +8-9 or less, which would correlate to a Harris win in the electoral college. You can still see this on r/fivethirtyeight from the bad site. I’m not optimistic and my best hope was Trump +7. People misread this as Trump +3 and were still celebrating. Headlines aren’t exaggerating here: this is a truly shocking poll. If the real result is even Trump +5, he is likely to have lost handily. If this is as accurate as Selzer has been since 2012, he will have lost in a true landslide. (Let’s not get ahead of ourselves, of course.)

I’ll link again Silver’s article on herding because it makes a strong case that most polls are not currently reliable due to self-preservation. Selzer releasing these results is not a self preserving move and would be a large pockmark on her otherwise “near-oracular” record.

You can scroll through my history and see that I am not an optimistic person. I initially assumed a Harris loss before Biden dropped out because RFK was still polling too well, a traditional indicator of loss when dropping incumbent status. I was pleased with her upward momentum— and still am, she deserves a great deal of credit for an excellent campaign— but she has always been the underdog in my mind. This is the most positive sign I’ve seen all season. It helps that Siena’s most recent PA poll was also quite positive at Harris +4 if I recall.

I’m too worried to be hopeful, but this has made it harder to doom. It’s so unexpected that I take it with a grain of salt, but if she’s even half right, things are a lot better than they feel.

Yeah. I started working out pretty heavy way back to stop being underweight but I still go multiple times a week to upkeep. I hate it but it keeps me from this shit.

Staying fit keeps most of your body working way better for longer. You can feel bodily discomfort in the gym on your terms, or at random on nature’s terms.

Recorded speech about engaging in crimes is often acceptable evidence. It’s probably the same with written messages.

I guess it’s up to the accused to prevent law enforcement from acquiring what they said, whether it be preventing recording, preventing police from sifting through mail or unsecure communications, or preventing police from acquiring the accused’s copy of potentially illegal communications. Which he is currently attempting.

I don’t blame him for trying, and would agree on a lesser extent that he is right to prevent self incriminating now. But copied communication as acceptable evidence is pretty settled in law by now.

Or one of the Margot Robbie looking actresses

Was hoping to see Margot Robbie in here requesting Margot Robbie play her

On the house, please come again

That’s the closest to “no you” that I’ve seen in a while, down to using my own word. Any other gems? Should I throw in a misspelling so you can go off on that instæd?

There’s this scene from The Boys S4– so spoilers abound— wherein Homelander spouts the conservative talking points to would-be donors behind closed doors and is told “yeah yeah save the talking points for the rabble.”

Which is great, as S4 is set in the stage where the Trump analogue takes power, but somehow we’re past that point irl. The guys in charge don’t seem to just be saying it for the “rabble” anymore. Sucks how far the right has moved in just a few years without losing significant support.

While I don’t care much about the subject, I do actually care about ineffective communication and how it presents. Indeed, I have made a few comments like that— specifically putting the reason a comment failed to communicate— in the hopes that at least one person will avoid that particular pitfall next time. I don’t do it as much as I’d like to because sometimes it’s hard to condense why a comment failed, but this one was pretty easy.

For the sake of argument though, making quips would still be better than worthless comments like your original one even if they didn’t communicate something. Among every form of discourse, quips are vastly better liked than “not true but I can’t prove it” to everyone but the guy being called out.

Nah don’t care, that subject itself doesn’t affect or interest me. Just saying that you convinced no one and that your comment provided no value besides a few upvotes for me, which don’t even matter on this site. I also intended it more for others who might be inclined to do the same thing rather than you yourself.

If you actually ever want to change minds or prevent the spread of misinformation (which I’m still not convinced it is because again, you provided no evidence and I still don’t care), it’s a good idea to actually elaborate instead of just saying “not true”. The only people convinced by empty comments like yours will be convinced the other way by the next evidence-free claim.

Btw I genuinely don’t see how the info would change my life for the better so if you are gonna start trying now, just edit it into your og comment or something, I probably won’t be back in this thread again

I bet “that’s not what happened” with zero elaboration has a single digit success rate

Weirdly, this comment is a little hasty but only because of recent developments. ONN presumably didn’t make enough money so it was canceled, thus they couldn’t keep doing sketches like that. Now that The Onion has bought itself from its corporate owners, ONN is said to be returning. If the new ONN sucks this comment will be accurate though.

I love this one. I sometimes fit “post office box” into sentences just to say it the way Duncan does.

Side note, I saw Duncan’s actor in an episode of Always Sunny a few years ago and it was lovely seeing him. He’s probably my favorite from ONN. The segment about Nigeria where he accidentally reads about Niger is a phenomenal use of visual comedy

How fucking stupid.

“Resorts World Las Vegas is dedicated at all times to ensuring a safe, secure, and comfortable environment for all of our valued guests,” the statement begins.

Resorts World said the latest policy was established “in light of recent events in Las Vegas, and the increasing ransomware threats to casinos and hotels on the Strip,”

Hard to see this absurd invasion of privacy as being for anything but that last bit. Hope this results in significantly fewer guests, but it feels like the vote-with-your-wallet part of capitalism stopped working some time ago.

Wait I’m still a bit confused. Do people use the brush part?

This is such an odd endorsement to seek.

I don’t see a huge amount of people who would trust the strange protest candidate enough to simply obey and vote for Trump. Especially because among his supporters who are largely 1) protest voters or 2) prone to conspiracy bandwagons, how many will remember who he endorsed in three months?

I don’t think it’s a bad day situation, that would be if she made mistakes. The moves were clearly deliberate.

I was never going to beat these girls on what they do best, the dynamic and the power moves, so I wanted to move differently, be artistic and creative because how many chances do you get in a lifetime to do that on an international stage?

I was always the underdog and wanted to make my mark in a different way.

And y’know what, if it doesn’t negatively impact her career from here, power to her. It was memorable and entertaining, even if it was at her own expense. As long as her opponents didn’t feel disrespected (I don’t know enough about the breaking culture to say), I think it was worthwhile. Wouldn’t most of us say we benefitted from watching it?

Yeah but he had significantly more pessimistic numbers for Biden from model launch to dropping out. Whether 538 was overly optimistic for the dems or Silver was overly pessimistic, it’s good news either way when both agree Harris is up

Nate Silver has similar numbers. I don’t have a great deal of faith in polls or poll aggregators, but both of those put together is a good sign.