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Cake day: June 9th, 2023

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  • If it makes you feel any better, modern climate and economic studies have shown that even a full scale nuclear war involving every nuclear power at the height of the Cold War and when nuclear stockpiles were far larger than today we still wouldn’t have come very close to actually killing off all the humans on earth, with the vast majority of the casualties being owed to famine in regions that were/are heavily dependent on western fertilizer. Indeed entire nations in the southern hemisphere tend to get through such senecios without much of an direct effect from world war three.

    Mostly this change from earlier predictions came from being able rule out the theory of a nuclear winter as climate modeling became more accurate and we could be sure that the secondary fires from such a war could not carry ash into the upper atmosphere in significant quantities, which was practically shown when a climate change fueled wildfire in Australia got so large that it should have been able to carry the ash into the upper atmosphere under nuclear winter theory but none was observed, validating modern climate models.

    Also, dispite what some less scrupulous journalists trying to drum up clicks have posted on the Ukraine War, the Russian government itself hasn’t really made any major signaling moves with regards to bringing nukes into the conflict, and indeed has maintained and repeatedly reiterated Putin’s 2010s no first use policy when asked.

    Don’t get me wrong, this is not the result of some greater Russian morals or whatever, but just a consequence of the inherent risk that such posturing could lead to nuclear escalation and breaking the nuclear taboo or even just other nations actually believing they plan to, and such scenarios end very badly for Russia in general and Putin in particular.


  • Opinion pieces on the Internet and political saber rattling by low level politicians does not a nuclear policy make.

    States actually have quite a few different ways of signaling they are serious about potentially ending the world as we know it, and Russia is currently using none of them.

    As an example, the Russian state’s own published nuclear policy has remained unchanged for over a decade and still explicitly prohibits nuclear first use in cases like this. Currently high level Russian politicians including Putin continue to reference said defense policy in response to questions about the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine. If they were seriously considering using said nuclear weapons in Ukraine, they would be unambiguously signaling through changing these documents and other such methods that other governments actually take seriously.

    More to the point, breaking the nuclear taboo would be massively harmful to both Russia and Putins own interests. It would at best result in a NATO backed no fly zone over Ukraine while China and Iran completely abandon them, and quite possibly result in a direct conventional or nuclear war with Nato. I simply don’t buy that they would do that with no warning or previous signaling simply because an artillery rocket was manufactured in a different country.


  • I mean, the government has mandated that all cars built since the 90s have to have a lot of computers and sensors for engine monitoring and emissions logging so that ship has long since sailed. Automatic braking is also credited with eliminating something like 1 in 5 fatalities in car accidents, so as long as we have any motorized vehicles around at all I don’t really have a problem with the government requiring manufacturers to spend the extra 20 dollars or so per vehicle it costs them to add a few ultrasonic sensors and a microcontroller it takes to slow the vehicle to the point where a driving into a pedestrian might just be survivable.


  • I’m not the specific target of the question since my family always turns out to vote, but I’d imagine some of the big ones are people not knowing that they have a legal right in many states to take paid time off work to vote, general apathy, voter suppression making it very difficult to vote in some areas, and given the swing in turnout between presidential and non presidential elections, a lot of people who only pay attention to the presidential elections because they get nationwide coverage dispite your local and district votes bro by a whole lot more important when it comes to effects on your life and keeping extremists from implementing their policies.








  • Not to cast dispersions on the everything starts with the jews in Israel narrative, but didn’t most of the political movement to force the sale of US TikTok to a US owner and the current law to do so long predate Oct 7 and the more even distribution of support shown on TikTok months afterword. Like I hate to break it to you but congress, especially this congress and the maze of think tanks that draft their laws, just arn’t that fast and efficient at implementing new policy.




  • Fusion also produces most of the nuclear waste that a fission plant does thanks to undergoing the same nutron activation process, and while it lacks spent fuel rods, thouse are already infinitely recyclable, so the only real waste saveings would be in low grade waste like dust covered clean suits and such.

    This also doesn’t help the case for Fusion very much given that even with these disposal costs ITER has costs four to six times any average fission plant for a donor reactor that has no generating capacity and which is mearly to prove that the physics work, something we did for fission with the Chicago pile in 1942 at an estimated inflation adjusted cost of 53 million dollars.

    If it’s this expensive for a proof of concept, it is very unlikely that any full plant would be much cheaper. Compare it to things we can actually deploy at scale today like onshore wind or battery backed solar, and it is pretty clear that Fusion is an expensive but important science project, not a serious proposal to power the electrical grid.



  • OpenAI’s algorithm like all LLM’s is designed to give you the next most likely word in a sentence based on what most frequently came next in its training data. Their main strategy has actually been to use a older and simpler transformer algorithm, and to just vastly increase the scrapped text content and recently bias with each new release.

    I would argue that any system that works by stringing sudorandom words together based on how often they appear in its input sources is not going to be able to do anything but generate bullshit, albeit bullshit that may happen to be correct by pure accident when it’s near directly quoting said input sources.


  • Well no restrictions on what they can buy beyond the fact Russia has halted and redirected all major military equipment exports to Ukraine for the last three years beyond licensed production and even if the war ended tomorrow it would need to spend years restoring its own military before it could export anything of value.

    Tieing the country’s ability to defend itself to a hypercapitalist far right government instead of a less ideologically driven nation like India or China is probably also an indication that the government isn’t very serious about going in a socialist direction so much as an indication that it is trying to whitewash its image with hollow rhetoric.

    I mean i’d like to see a challenge to a capitalist dominated world, but this sure doesn’t seem to be one.


  • Ya, it definitely has nothing to do with overly ambitious requirements for nodes, poor siteing of plants by companies, said sites requiring highly skilled workers move to small town Arazona for peanuts, or even the fact that in many cases training worked on these cutting edge nodes ment they needed to learn a second language and spend years in a foreign country for work, and Amaricans arn’t used to being the ones who have to do that.

    It definitely wasn’t any of that, it was that they tried to hire a similar percentage of qualified women and black people as apllied to work on these projects. Definitely.


  • Most of the recent change in AI has been owed to Openai’s approach of combining a more primitive transformer with going from all the books they could pirate with GPT3 to the entire text interment with GPT4. Smaller subject specific models have made relatively little progress in the last ten to fifteen years, so I don’t think a chatbot like GPT4 that regurgitates more specific information with high accuracy is likely to be on the table anytime soon.

    A better search engine seems far more suited to such a task than a generitive system anyway.