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Cake day: July 25th, 2023

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  • mwguy@infosec.pubOPtopolitics @lemmy.worldPennsylvania may be a problem for Harris
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    29 days ago

    RCP has Harris at a 1.8% favorite in its polling average. At the beginning of this month Trump was winning in these polls (granted partially because of Biden’s degraded mental state). So opinions could legitimately change.

    Additionally, Kennedy is still at 4.5%, and generally 3rd parties support degrades the closer to the election it gets. It’s difficult to say where that support will degrade to. If Trump’s support falls to 1% and Trump takes 3% of that support, he’ll be ahead in the polls.

    Finally, all the national polls have a margin of error between 2-3%. It’s just as possible that Harris is up by 4.8% as it is that she’s down by 3.8%.

    So the chance of Harris losing the popular vote is significant.