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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: June 16th, 2023

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  • I think as candidates Clinton, W. Bush, Gore, Obama, McCain had sincere support overshadowing the need to stop some particular bad person instead. As misguided as I think it is, Trump voters also are all about Trump less than stopping Biden. I can’t personally remember a race where “the other side must be stopped” as pretty much the sole consideration among the voters until the Trump era.

    Yes, third party candidates are dismissed in a self fulfilling prophecy, but also that reality drives most reasonable would-be third party candidates to one of the viable parties, generally leaving third party candidates that wouldn’t be that popular anyway.



  • Considering the proposal is only about LA county, figure I’d use that, but we can consider things either way.

    I would expect that whatever means had the retiree have both a home and at least another property left them with other typical sources of passive income. So in aggregate, I would expect social security, with retirement savings, plus the value of the house produces an overall viable income.

    Whether the mortgage is paid off or not is immaterial unless they are somehow “upside down” on it. If the mortgage is not paid off, then selling it also removes the mortgage payment.

    But let’s say that it is unreasonable to sell, maybe somehow the person has all of their money tied up in the property and can’t sell the property for an amount to get enough passive income. This measure would not force her to sell, it simply caps her rental income increase to 3% a year. Her property value may go up, but that doesn’t make her mortgage go up (if she even has one). County assessments would make her tax bill increase some, though generally a pittance. Even if you are concerned about the tax bill, you could have some clause that assessments or property tax for people with rental properties is similarly capped if the owner is subject to a rental income cap. In most contexts, the ability to guarantee oneself a 3% a year raise would be pretty respectable.


  • It’s one of those things that depends on the situation. As it stands, they want “no compulsory education”, but it’s because they don’t like what the students will learn. However, if they could be assured that the compulsory education would be consistent with their views, then they would be all about compulsory education. No need to fear the Bible, there’s plenty of “help” interpreting it available to people reading it…

    Same on abortion rights. Currently the rhetoric is “well, it should be up to the states, not the federal government” but if they can ban it nationally, suddenly they would not be in favor of states like New York or California deciding for themselves.



  • He lost during a crazy pandemic that caused massive uncertainty, at a time when most of the economy was ‘shut down’. And even then, there were enough electoral votes to give him the victory that were less than a 1% margin of going to Trump. So he was shockingly close to winning, given the circumstances. Voting was also easier than ever in 2020, and many of those measures to make voting easier have been undone. So in 2020, you probably didn’t need to go to a job, and even if you did, you could easily mail your vote in. In 2024, a likely Biden voter is more likely to have their job tie them up and are also less likely to reasonably be able to mail in a vote.

    More than half of Americans think the economy is in bad shape (whether or not they are accurate is beside the point). That’s generally a bad sign for an incumbent. Trump’s tossing out populist fodder as promises he would certainly break, but there’s a large population willing to bet on that longshot.