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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: August 25th, 2023

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  • These people aren’t placing bets on who they want to win, they are placing bets where the house odds differ from the actual expected outcome. The people throwing big money on this are doing it based on actual data (amalgamating polls, etc), not just gut feelings.

    If I think Kamala has a 45% chance of winning the election and the bookie is giving her implied odds of 40%, I should take that bet, because even though I think she will lose, I stand to make a 12.5% ROI on my bet. I can then hedge that bet on another bookmaker giving a 48% implied odds, and if enough people do this the bookmakers odds will converge on 44%


  • but either way I don’t think this “market” knew more than the mainstream media was telling us.

    No, but it is a culmination of all the available public information (and some private information you won’t find elsewhere) in a single metric. If you read a single article you would assume there is either a 100% Biden drops out or a 0% chance - if you read every single news article in existence, aggregated all social media buzz, polls, etc, into a statistical likelihood, you would likely come out with a number that closely matches the odds.

    Biden was only going to drop out once, so you can’t say how closely these odds matched the actual likelihood on this specific measure, but if you analyze hundreds of predictive markets like this, the implied odds pretty strongly correlate with the actual binomial outcomes


  • It’s unavoidable - once the cheese gets hot enough the steam will either force the liquid cheese out of existing holes, or it will make its own holes.

    Make sure they are fresh out of the freezer when you put them in, as this lets the outside crisp up more before the inside becomes lava. Once you get close to the prescribed cooking time, you need to just sit in front of the oven door and watch them, and as soon as 2-3 break open, take the whole tray out








  • There are like 10,000 different solutions, but I would just recommend using what’s built in to python

    If you have multiple versions installed you should be able to call python3.12 to use 3.12, etc

    Best practice is to use a different virtual environment for every project, which is basically a copy of an existing installed python version with its own packages folder. Calling pip with the system python installs it for the entire OS. Calling it with sudo puts the packages in a separate package directory reserved for the operating system and can create conflicts and break stuff (as far as I remember, this could have changed in recent versions)

    Make a virtual environment with python3.13 -m venv venv the 2nd one is the directory name. Instead of calling the system python, call the executable at venv/bin/python3

    If you do source venv/bin/activate it will temporarily replace all your bash commands to point to the executables in your venv instead of the system python install (for pip, etc). deactivate to revert. IDEs should detect the virtual environment in your project folder and automatically activate it



  • The feature is explicit sync, which is a brand new graphics stack API that would fix some issues with nvidia rendering under Wayland.

    It’s not a big deal, canonical basically said ‘this isn’t a bug fix or security patch, it’s not getting backported into our LTS release’ - so if you want it you have to install GNOME/mutter from source, switch operating systems, or just wait a few months for the next Ubuntu release



  • Reddit has way more data than you would have been exposed to via the API though - they can look at things like user ARN (is it coming from a datacenter), whether they were using a VPN, they track things like scroll position, cursor movements, read time before posting a comment, how long it takes to type that comment, etc.

    no one at reddit is going to hunt these sophisticated bots because they inflate numbers

    You are conflating “don’t care about bots” with “don’t care about showing bot generated content to users”. If the latter increases activity and engagement there is no reason to put a stop to it, however, when it comes to building predictive models, A/B testing, and other internal decisions they have a vested financial interest in making sure they are focusing on organic users - how humans interact with humans and/or bots is meaningful data, how bots interact with other bots is not