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Honestly, I’m not super married to the idea of “solving” crimes. I would rather prevent 1 crime than solve 2. The idea that solving crimes is more important than preventing them only works for the punitive model of justice, one that I do not ascribe to.
If we could cut the crime rate 90%, but the people who committed crimes went free, I’d still strongly consider it.
That’s despite the fact I don’t agree that big crimes wouldn’t get solved. Of over 650,000 police officers, only 10,000 are detectives, who are trained and tasked with solving crimes. That’s a LOT of cops that solve crimes for a living at all. They “keep peace”. Sometimes you DO need a cop to keep peace, when the most important thing is the presence of mitigating force. The rest of the time, a social worker is more effective.
I grew up adjacent to two cities with some of the highest crime rates in the US. The one that went easier on the cops and heavier on local programs and improvements had its crime rate plummet. The one that doubled-down on policing still has a gang problem (and drug OD problem) today. The former had the higher crime rate, including a street that hit the top 10 deadliest streets in the country.
As for what I do, immaterial. But I live with emergency workers, and they are saints who put their lives at risk every day. They also don’t like cops, but are afraid to say it because cops can fuck up their lives. Yes, sometimes they need cops for the direct prevention of a violent situation (see my point below), but as often the cops get in their way. They are required to obey a lawful order even when they’re doing their job, and sometimes that costs a patient’s life. Very often, accountability on that is more politics than justice.
How many of those didn’t happen because of the cops’ presence? The math (see below) says zero of them. If you could be confident that 50% defunding police and replacing them with social programs would cut the rate of those things substantially, what would your opinion be? More crime and more thugs to punish it, or less crime?
I’d like to take note that everything you said in your last reply might be appropriate if I were some punk kid saying “let’s get rid of all the cops in the world” or somesuch. I’m saying let’s stop funding them beyond their need and stop trusting them to do the things they are not qualified for. Of all the horrible things you’ve seen, police still cause more deaths than they prevent, committing 5% of homicides themselves… while police budget and saturation does not have any detectable correlation to homicide figures. That means, $1 spent on policing causes a net increase to homicide rates.
Again, that’s NOT saying those figures would stay the same if we cut 90% or 95% or 100% of police funding, but they sure as hell would if we cut 30% or 40%, and if we reallocated that into programs that DO solve those problems? We have those programs. They’re just underfunded by people who don’t think we deserve free mental healthcare, free food, etc. EVERY $1 that goes into welfare does more to cut crimes than $1 into police.