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Cake day: October 15th, 2023

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  • No, modern polling is mostly useless. The respondents skew heavily in one direction (old people that answer the phone).

    There is no sample size big enough to account for a complete cultural shift away from answering phone calls and text messages from people you don’t know.

    Most polls report a response rate of about 90%, as reported by a PEW analysis of available studies. However, that is a made up number which does not account for attrition (quitters) or non-response to panel recruitment (no answers). If you include those numbers the real response rate is about 3%. Which means between the initial contact and giving their opinion 97% of people asked don’t participate in a given poll.