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Cake day: July 20th, 2023

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  • It’s not a rescue mission. It was an already scheduled mission which is why it’s 6 months long. Two of the originally scheduled crew got their seats bumped so the boeing capsule test asteonauts would have seats for a normal return. Wilmore and Wiliams could have returned in the other spacex capsule that was already up there in case of emergency. They were never stranded.





  • https://www.planetary.org/articles/why-international-space-station-cant-operate-forever

    The ISS has gone through multiple reboosts to gain altitude because there is a small amount of atmospheric drag in its orbit. That’s not the limiting factor though.

    The structure is aluminum. Aluminum accumulates fatigue damage every time it flexes. Every time the iss goes from sunlight to the earths shadow, there is significant thermal expansion/contraction. This fatigues the structure. The repeated docking maneuvers also stress the structure. Radiation and atomic oxygen also cause degredation. All those factors are relatively minor in any given year, but are always accumulating. The ISS is getting less safe and the risk of a structural failure is increasing.

    On top of that all, a bunch of the systems on board were designed 30 years ago. There have been major changes in communications, power systems, etc. in the time since the modules were built. Even though new experiments are built all the time, they are still constrained by capabilities of the capsules they operate in. So there are also science advantages to moving to a newer platform.







  • I’m not saying normalization is a bad strategy, just that it, like any other processing technique comes with limitations and requires extra attention to avoid incorrect conclusions when interpreting the results.

    Because relative to the population density, there were 100 times as many sightings. Or what am I missing.

    If you were to attempt to trap and tag bigfoots in both areas, would you end up with 100 times as many angry people in a gorilla suit in the small town? No. You would end up with 1 in both areas. So while the tiny town does technically have 100x the density per capita, each region has only one observable suit wearer.

    Assuming the distribution of gorilla suit wearers is uniform, you would expect approximately 99 tiny towns with no big foot sightings for every 1 town with a sighting. So if you were to sample random small towns, because the map says big foots live near small towns, you would actually see fewer hairy beasts than your peer who decided to sample areas with higher population density.

    If we could have fractional observations, then all this would be a lot more straightforward, but the discrete nature of the subject matter makes the data imherently noisy. Interpreting data involving discrete events is a whole art and usually involves a lot of filtering.


  • Simple normalization does amplify signals in low density areas. If a person in a tiny town of 100 reports a bigfoot sighting and another person in an area with 10,000 population also reports a sighting, then with simple normalization the map would show the area with 100 people having 100 times as many big foot sightings per capita as the area with the population of 10k. Someone casually reading the map would erroneously conclude that the tiny town is a bigfoot hotspot and would in general conclude bigfoot clearly prefers rural areas where they can hide in seclusion. When the reality is that the intense signals are artifacts of the sampling/processing methods and both areas have the same number of fursuit wearers.






  • I don’t think limiting density would control bird flu specifically considering that wild bird populations are high enough density to spread this disease.

    I do generally support lower density farming though. Anecdotally, the white blood cell count of dairy cows on pasture is way lower than when they are in barns during the winter. And even the winter white blood cell counts on the small organic dairy farm I worked on was an order of magnitude lower than what is considered normal for conventional dairy.

    White blood cell counts in milk are used as a proxy to monitor for infections. It’s impractical to test for every pathogen, but looking for the immune response of the cow works reasonably well.