Hi, do you think lemmy would be as popular as Reddit ? I mean, many subreddits have much more posts compared to communities on lemmy… sometimes I scroll through Reddit sub top of month and see no end. At lemmy mostly I see 10 posts monthly… I do like concept of moving to lemmy, but it might make no sense if people’s are no active here and tbh I see the trend of disappearing activity
As long as algoritmically driven centralized content pipelines remain popular, the Fediverse in general will not capture the mainstream.
Say what you will about Lemmy and Mastadon et al being "straightforward and easy to use". I'm sure it is for you. But there's a reason most mainstream platforms treat their users like absolute cretins: the majority of mainstream users are, and they both enjoy and expect being coddled and catered to by the platform.
The very notion of Lemmy being sharded into "instances" and what that means is so antithetical to the common preconceived notion of what a social media platform is to most people. "Oh, it's not just all here in one place?" And yeah, federation greases the wheels a lot so no one even has to think about instances… until a community you like is suddenly rendered inaccessible via defederation.
Also, content discovery on the Fediverse is admittedly kind of ass. Only those who both know what they want going in and where to look for what they want really get anything out of it. Most centralized social media platforms are relentless content recommendation engines because people don't actuslly know what they want until they've had it brought to them. An algorithm that at least attempts to adapt to what you want to see more of is a key part of that. Lemmy does not have this (nor should it).
All that said, the fact that Fediverse platforms like Lemmy filter "common people" in these ways is, from what I can tell from here and elsewhere, a feature, not a bug. By being here at all, you prove a kind of baseline competency and a willingness to put in effort to learn the system that sets you at the forefront of most social media users. Most of us like it that way and are happy to keep growth of the community stunted in exchange for it.
Of course, all of the major platforms were in those shoes at one point. Will the Fediverse be the ship everyone leaps to next when the current platforms become so enshittified that even the main stream hates it? Maybe. But wherever the main stream goes, enshittification inevitably follows. The mainstream success of the Fediverse will synonomously be the death of the Fediverse as we know it. I for one would like some more time to hang out here before then.
I completely reject the notion that the mainstream success of the fediverse will be the death of the fediverse, what are your reasons for believing that?
Enshittification happens to monetized platforms because they tried to capture as many users as possible and then profit off of them, lemmy instances show no profit motive, and are volunteer run. There isn't a route to enshittification with federation, because even if YOUR instance enshittifies, there's still many others that will not, and due to federation, you won't miss out on any content (as long as your instance doesn't defed), so it won't matter.
I also believe the issues you call out, aside from algorithmically driven content, will be solved eventually, as mod tools improve, there will be less of a need for defederation.
Even algorithmically driven content is partially solved by "hot" and "best" being improved, it's just not personalized.
With the rate of lemmy development being as rapid as it is, these things will eventually be solved, but that takes a lot of time. Lemmy is still barely even beta.
Your points about the Fediverse being immune to enshittification feel like echoes of what we'd say about the world wide web twenty five or so years ago. The web itself is somewhat of a federated platform. Websites are analogous to instances. And while it would be dubious to claim that the entire web as an infrastructure has enshittified (though Google sure seems to be trying…), I think it's not controversial at all to claim that the biggest players alive on the web have.
Yeah, you can always make your own scrappy little website. But you'll be an island few to no users will want to visit and support if you're competing with the other players. That, or you catch on and grow to the point where you yourself become the villain.
I see two roads for the Fediverse. Either it never grows past some filter and remains scrappy, or several large instances for the biggest platforms will dominate, sap up the market share of attention, and then use their weight to pressure how the protocol is maintained in the future, embrace-extend-extinguish style.
Also, "no profit motive"? Where critical masses of people gather, entrepeneurs surely follow. Someone will figure out a way to monetize hosting a Fediverse instance. Hell, Threads tried, sort of. That alone won't immediately enshittify the whole Fediverse. But given enough time and growth, well, see above.
that's exactly what federation prevents… you can be a scrappy little website and federate, and then you don't need a massive infrastructure that would cause enshittification later. If you enshittify, people will just leave to other parts of the fediverse, the model causes enshittification to just be the failure of your website.
This is different from the world wide web in that the content is not partitioned. I can get the same lemmy experience if I go elsewhere, and not lose out on content. If there's a major new privacy concern on my instance, i'm going to say fuck them and leave, and I'll lose nothing.
Except they'll inevitably fail aside from the people who legitimately don't care, and quite frankly, if they don't care, who does? Just go to another instance if that happens, you'll lose nothing, and it won't even be a problem.
Federation makes the part of enshittification where you box in your users not work. The reason facebook could enshittify is because if you left facebook, you'd lose ALL of facebook. They trapped people. You can't trap people like that on the fediverse. The first step fails inevitably, you'll just make everyone on your instance hate you and they'll leave for literally any other instance and it will die.
The fediverse doesn't work well with profit motive because of that, the only real way to profit without causing anybody who knows anything about what you're doing maliciously to leave is… what exactly?
When leaving has no cost, there's no way to force people to stay if you do something shitty.
Even if you keep some users, meh, they won't keep me, and i'll lose nothing by switching.