- cross-posted to:
- politics@lemmy.world
- cross-posted to:
- politics@lemmy.world
There was an article earlier about people smoking crack if they thing Trump is up 10 points.
Well…he's up 10 points. The Democrats need to do something fairly drastic soon if they want to win 24.
Polls have been off the past few elections. Polls said Romney, Clinton, and Trump would win the last three elections. Soooooo Ya let's not put too much weight in these.
This simply isn't true.
There's a trend there we should all pay attention to.
Not saying don't be vigilant when it comes to voting but polling is still using 1940s rationalization when it comes to who they poll. Young people don't pick up calls, so they are vastly under counted here.
Ask Bernie how the young vote turned out.
Bernie was stabbed in the back by the DNC. NOT VOTERS
Eh, he was kinda stabbed in the back by young voters. I know several people who worked in Washington state's primaries. They wanted Bernie, but discovered that while his supporters could be counted on to show up for protests and rallies, they couldn't be counted on to actually register as Democrats so they could vote in the primaries.
Fortunately, young people seem to have learned their lesson in the last few years.
Being fair to young people in Washington, by the time the primary got to them the fix was in and it was already clear Biden was going to win imo
Please describe the "fix" and how it would have been effective if young people had showed up to vote in the primaries for Bernie.
The problem here is that most states don't allow people who aren't registered as a member of a party to vote in that party's primaries. And Bernie attracted a lot of attention from independent young people who didn't want to affiliate with the Democratic party.
Like it or not, that independence bit them in the ass, because they could rally and chant and protest and send money to his campaign, but they couldn't vote. Meanwhile, more pragmatically-minded people who knew they couldn't vote in primaries without being registered as Democrats all lined up behind Biden, registered, and voted.
It didn't thrill me. Biden was last on my list, and my preferred candidate was Elizabeth Warren. Bernie was #2 on my list. But when I talked to my pro-Bernie friends, I knew - and so did they - that Biden was going to win, because his supporters registered and turned out to vote.
Since then, young people have clearly smartened up and recognized the same problem. They're showing up to vote in every election, and it's causing Democrats to overperform and beat the polls. I absolutely love to see that.
Well first they sabotaged the Iowa caucus with the Shadow App, giving a victory to an absolute nobody.
Then Bernie kept winning the early contests. So, all the other centrist candidates dropped out to form Voltron behind Biden while Warren stayed in as a center-left spoiler candidate.
Bernie never stood a chance.
Bernie wouldn't have won the last election. I'd have been happy with him. I really kinda hoped for Warren. But if I recall correctly, Bernie lost more in black votes than he gained in youth votes. And in a general, being able to pin the word socialist (you and I know social democrat isn't the same, but the electorate is short on nuance) on him would've lost a huge chunk of the middle.
Yes, the DNC fucked Bernie and I was pissed all the way to the election, but once the results were in it was clear to me that they did the right thing because Bernie would've lost and we would've had another Trump administration and that might've ended democracy right there. Young people were never going to come out in unimaginable droves in the general if they wouldn't in the primaries. I want it to be different than it is, and I'm glad young voting is trending up because the future belongs to you folks, but it's not enough yet to pretend you can ignore the base of voters that would be pushed across the aisle.
I mean feel free to argue with me. Post proof of how I'm wrong because I'd like to be, but I don't think so.
Bernie has tremendous support in the deindustrialized parts of America, which is where Trump is strongest. That would have thrown everything up in the air and the outcome is uncertain. We'll never know now, I guess.
The DNC did that, not voters, thats why they kneecapped him early 2016, he was projected to win by a landslide
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Polls have not been off, theyve been selectively polling specific demographics.
The only way they were able to show Clinton beating Bernie in 2016
Gotta look at the methodology of the poll, usually at the bottom
For this poll,
Methodology This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Sept. 15-20, 2023, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,006 adults. Partisan divisions are 25-25-42%, Democrats-Republicans-independents. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 percentage points, including the design effect. Sampling error is not the only source of differences in polls.
With an even split between of those polled D and R, Biden is still losing