"The poll shows that women — particularly those who are older or are politically independent — are driving the late shift toward Harris.”
"The poll shows that women — particularly those who are older or are politically independent — are driving the late shift toward Harris.”
No, you didn’t see this poll predicting Hillary crushing Iowa.
The Selzer poll is one of the best, it only looks at Iowa, and in 2016 it was one of the few that said Trump was doing much better than everyone expected.
In 2020 it said Biden was doing better than Clinton, but Trump was nevertheless doing better than expected.
In both cases, it was spot on. And this year, it says Trump is doing far worse than everyone thinks.
That said… Go vote!
Anecdotally, I’ve seen a good lot of houses with local Republican candidates that don’t have Trump signs. Some only have Trump signs.
I had made a comment a while back about only seeing Trump signs outside of my Iowa community. Almost immediately after I said that, there were a good chuck of Democratic signs starting to pop up, which is way more than the one or two I had seen previously.
I don’t know that I’ve seen crazy amounts of flipping or anything like that, but it was a noticeable difference that I wasn’t specifically looking for.