It’s just that people only really notice when they are “wrong.”
they also get wildly misreported and speculated on. this is the source of the idea that “the polls were wrong” and “trump outperformed the polls” in 2016. The real truth is that the polls said that clinton wins three times out of four, but you had media outlets like HuffPo reporting that she had a 99% chance of winning, and they established the narrative that trump was a clown and the election was a foregone conclusion. Then the coin came up heads twice in a row, which is what a 25% chance represents in intuitive terms, and while Clinton was doing her preemptive victory lap in BlUe TeXaS he actually won the election.
they also get wildly misreported and speculated on. this is the source of the idea that “the polls were wrong” and “trump outperformed the polls” in 2016. The real truth is that the polls said that clinton wins three times out of four, but you had media outlets like HuffPo reporting that she had a 99% chance of winning, and they established the narrative that trump was a clown and the election was a foregone conclusion. Then the coin came up heads twice in a row, which is what a 25% chance represents in intuitive terms, and while Clinton was doing her preemptive victory lap in BlUe TeXaS he actually won the election.