If Speaker Kevin McCarthy has any hope of avoiding a shutdown this fall, he’ll probably need help from Democrats.
But he’s not guaranteed to get it — at least not yet.
By Sept. 30, House GOP leaders have to pass a major bipartisan spending deal or a short-term patch to keep the government open, with both options requiring cooperation from McCarthy’s hardliners. But those recalcitrant conservatives are signaling they’ll be loath to support either solution, almost certainly putting the onus on House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and his Democrats to help avert disaster. “At some point we’ll have to deal with the reality that America is a two-party system. If we can’t do it on our own, there may come a point in time when you want to have to deal with Democrats,” said Rep. Dave Joyce (R-Ohio), who leads the centrist Republican Governance Group and has been part of GOP spending talks.
What’s more unusual this time, though, is that Democrats will probably need to do more than simply chip in to pass a bipartisan deal or a deadline extension. They’ll have to vote to help Republicans move any agreement to the House floor.
That scenario carries plenty of potential pitfalls for a speaker who’s already on thin ice with his hard-right wing. McCarthy will need to survive the wrath of his conservatives if he calls a vote where large numbers of Democrats help the GOP agree to start debate on a spending plan that those hardliners oppose.
His right-flank rebels’ threats to weaponize the House’s rule for debate — a procedural step that’s required in order to vote on any bill — could extend to more than just government spending. Democrats may have to step in to end a conservative blockade of several other high-stakes bills this fall, from a new farm bill to a foreign surveillance measure to Ukraine aid.
On each of those items, senior Republicans widely acknowledge the difficulty of corralling their hard-right wing. Some of them also worry that Democrats won’t be in any mood to help them out of a bind on rules for debate, even if it means a shutdown.
“If you’re the Democrats, what motivation do you have to want to help Republicans, who are now governing, achieve their goals and objectives?” a downbeat Rep. Steve Womack (R-Ark.) said.
“Unless they have this desire to save the country from itself, I don’t see them coming to the rescue on the rule, I don’t see them coming to the rescue on the votes,” Womack added.
I swear the only good thing that came out of the trump nonsense (aside from those stimmy checks - I’ll never shit talk when someone gives me money) is that the sheer quickness and severity of how he shattered open the cracks in the political system has made it nigh impossible for even the most ardent head-in-the-sand types to keep pretending like everything’s fine, even if they still don’t want to actively think about it. But it definitely seems to have shifted the general vibe from one of resignation to one of “uh, guys? Should somebody like, do something about all of… this?”
I’m trying to not be too optimistic, but between the elegence of the Trump indictment, the republican mega-doners diatancing themselves for the GOP shitshow, and whatever the fuck DeSantis is doing to piss of pretty much everyone that would be a bad idea to piss off, I’m actually starting to feel… dare I say… hopeful? That the societal consensus is that we actually want a competent government that holds the interests of the people at the forefront, and will be paying attention to when that’s not happening.