For my money, it is the current civil trial in New York, brought by the New York state attorney general, Letitia James, that threatens Trump’s reputation most acutely and right where it hurts. The suit carries no threat of prison or disruption to Trump’s presidential bid. But in the short term it does threaten to unseat his reputation as a businessman of any standing and strip him of his licence to operate a business in New York.
This is the best summary I could come up with:
We have been here before countless times: prematurely anticipating the end of Donald Trump on the basis of actions or implications that, for anyone else, would have proven fatal long ago.
Quick recap: the former president is facing four separate criminal cases, involving 91 felony counts, in four separate states; plus a civil fraud case currently being heard in Manhattan; plus a second defamation suit brought by the writer E Jean Carroll, whom earlier this year Trump was found guilty of sexually assaulting and defaming and ordered to pay $5m.
The question in all of these cases is less whether Trump will be found guilty than whether there is any outcome whatsoever that would be capable of preventing him from standing for president next year, or – the more depressing calculation, in some ways – of damaging his chances, if not.
For the former president, the most straightforwardly dangerous criminal trial – that is the one that is, simultaneously, the most serious and also appears to involve the most clear-cut evidence against him – is the so-called classified documents case, brought in Florida by special counsel Jack Smith.
But in the short term it does threaten to unseat his reputation as a businessman of any standing and strip him of his licence to operate a business in New York.
Unlike all the other legal actions against Trump, which he has apparently successfully been able to pass off as part of some vast conspiracy against him, the fraud case, in which it is alleged that he inflated the value of his businesses to secure better loan rates, lands differently.
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